I had some time this morning to look at the Olympics draw, and decided to do some analysis of the futures.
I used my model to create a matrix containing the probabilities for all the possible matchups in the tournament (i.e. a 64 x 64 matrix).
From this I then used the tournament futures odds program a made a while ago to simulate the probabilities of all the players making it through the various stages of the tournament.
Please note: these are rather rough calculations and the finals results are very sensitive to small changes in the model inputs. Also for the matches where there is an overwhelming favourite (i.e. Federer v Falla in the first round) my model often says the favourite is even more of a favourite than the market/bookmakers say.)
If you need some more explanation of the meaning of the results presented here or have any input, please comment and I will respond shortly, also please share this with anyone you know who might be interested. I value any input I can get.
So without further ado, here are the results:
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